The surprise for the left
It is an earthquake. For the first time since 2012, and despite the fact that everyone was expecting the far right to be at its peak, even reaching the majority, the first political force in the country is… the left. Indeed, the New Popular Front came first in the second round of the legislative elections, with 182 deputies, in addition to 13 deputies of miscellaneous left.
An earthquake whereas the public opinion was expecting a landslide victory for the National Rally. The French far-right did not get the expected majority, not even the title of first political force, it came in third position with 143 seats. That is more than during the last legislative elections of 2022, but far less than what was expected. A majority avoided thanks to the awakening of a Republican Front which allowed withdrawals and barrages (when a candidate withdraws in favor of another better suited candidate to make sure the Far-Right candidate wouldn’t win).
The liberal political block Ensemble, led by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, succeeded in holding its positions, benefiting from the Republican Front. It got 168 seats, compared to 250 in 2022.
Bardellisation or bordellisation: the medias
The political campaign was arduous for all of the political forces, showing the polarization of the debates and the radicalization of political life. Many candidates, from all parties of the political spectrum, were physically harassed while they were campaigning.
While the media relayed this turning point in French political life, they also framed the debates around a binary choice: bardellisation or bordelisation. Relaying the withdrawals in favor of candidates able to counter the election of RN candidates, as well as the constitution of a relative Republican front, most of the media were focused on the hypothesis of an absolute majority of the National Rally in the National Assembly. Dealing with weak projections, the observers of political life were reporting an almost self-fulfilling prophecy.
Consequent to this media focus, according to the Jean Jaurès Foundation, the leaders of the National Rally benefited from unequal exposure in the media. Unequaled by their party in the past, but also unequaled by the other political forces involved in these legislative elections. To put it in a nutshell, the media never talked as much about the National Rally as they did during these elections ! A mediatized exposure which should not make us forget the debate topics chosen by the journalists, topics mostly favorable to the far-right.
According to the observers, the other choice of the voters was an ungovernable Assembly. A National Assembly without a clear majority. A “bordelized” National Assembly. In this sense, and based on these same fragile and problematic projections, commentators portrayed a country blocked by the partisan divisions of an Assembly deprived of a majority. A refrain already used two years ago.
2 years ago, indeed, the legislative elections resulted in the lack of a majority, but not an ungovernability of the country. If, today, the risk is real, the fact remains that this framing may have influenced the way voters voted. This is all the more true in view of the media’s over-representation of the National Rally as a party of order and the nation, which presented itself during the campaign as a “bulwark against chaos”.
The Macron defeat
In any case, the 2024 legislative elections - which were supposed to be a “clarification” for Emmanuel Macron - are a defeat for the outgoing presidential majority. Moreover, it is also a personal defeat for the president.
In 2014, Emmanuel Macron came to politics with the wish of seeing the far-right disappear from French political life. For that, he has wished, since 2014 (when he was Minister of Economics), “improve” the figures of employment and competitiveness. According to him, the 2 reasons for the vote for the far-right. An ultra liberal vision of politics, which led Emmanuel Macron to apply this vision as head of state. Presenting himself as the only one against “the extremes”, he succeeded in his political party and was twice re-elected by the barrage against this same extreme right. But while his gamble worked from one political point of view, it didn’t work from another: the far right has continued to grow, breaking glass ceilings one by one. Today, although the far right has been relegated to third place, the liberal bloc has enabled a significant increase in their seats in the assembly. This, at a time when unemployment and the country’s competitiveness have improved significantly.
While the National Rally just missed the Matignon doors, it now wants the presidency of the Republic, a disavowal to the one who wanted, 7 years ago, “no longer leave any reason to vote for the far right”.
What about France’s political future?
This is an unprecedented situation for a country whose institutions were created to avoid this type of situation. To avoid instability. In fact, the legislative elections failed to produce a majority, and no majority seems to be emerging, despite the fact that everyone is determined to implement their respective programs.
It is customary for the President of the Republic to appoint a Prime Minister from among the winners of the elections, who is capable of forming even a relative majority in the National Assembly.
In our current situation, Emmanuel Macron would have to appoint a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front, who would attract the support, or abstention, of the liberal bloc and the Republicans (center-right). But what are customs and rules of convention worth in this unprecedented situation ?
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